Is chess a solved game? For decades, chess enthusiasts, scientists, and AI researchers have debated whether there exists a perfect strategy that guarantees a win or draw with flawless play. This article explores what it truly means for a game to be “solved,” examines the progress of computer engines like Stockfish and AlphaZero, and discusses how far we are from solving chess entirely.
You’ll also learn how complexity theory, computational limits, and game databases affect the possibility of reaching a definitive answer.
Introduction: The Timeless Question of Chess
Chess, one of the oldest and most intellectually challenging games in the world, continues to fascinate millions. Despite centuries of play and the rise of superhuman engines, the question persists: Is chess a solved game?
To “solve” a game means determining its theoretical outcome—win, loss, or draw—assuming both sides play perfectly. Games like tic-tac-toe and checkers are solved, but chess, with its immense complexity, remains a mystery.
In this article, we’ll explore the scientific, computational, and philosophical sides of the question—and find out just how close we might be to cracking the chess code.
1. What Does It Mean to “Solve” a Game?
Before asking whether chess is solved, we need to understand what solving a game really means.
Types of Solved Games:
- Weakly solved: The game’s outcome (win/loss/draw) is known from the starting position assuming perfect play by both sides.
- Strongly solved: Every possible position in the game has an optimal move known.
- Ultra-strongly solved: A player can force a win from any position against imperfect play.
For example:
- Tic-tac-toe is strongly solved—it always ends in a draw with perfect play.
- Checkers was weakly solved in 2007—it’s a draw if both sides play optimally.
For chess, solving would mean knowing with certainty whether the initial position results in a win for White, a draw, or a win for Black—given perfect play from both sides.
2. The Enormous Complexity of Chess
Chess has an estimated 10^120 possible game variations, known as the Shannon number, after mathematician Claude Shannon. To put that in perspective, that’s more possible chess games than atoms in the observable universe.
- There are about 10^43 possible legal positions.
- Each turn has an average of 35 legal moves.
- A typical game lasts around 80 moves.
This astronomical number makes brute-force computation impossible with current or foreseeable technology.
Why It’s Hard to Solve Chess:
- Exponential growth of possibilities after every move.
- Human-like intuition needed for positional understanding.
- Storage limits for databases that could contain all positions.
Even with today’s fastest supercomputers, solving chess from start to finish would take far longer than the age of the universe.
3. The Role of Chess Engines
Modern chess engines like Stockfish, Leela Chess Zero, and AlphaZero have dramatically changed how we understand the game. However, these engines don’t “solve” chess—they approximate perfect play through advanced algorithms and massive computation.
Stockfish
Stockfish is an open-source engine that uses brute-force search and evaluation functions to explore millions of positions per second. Its strength comes from:
- Alpha-beta pruning.
- Neural evaluation models (as of 2023+ versions).
- Access to tablebases (perfect information for simplified endgames).
AlphaZero and Leela Chess Zero
These AI engines use deep reinforcement learning, not brute-force search. They teach themselves chess by playing millions of games, learning patterns rather than memorizing positions.
AlphaZero’s 2017 victory over Stockfish shocked the chess world—it demonstrated that intuition-like play could rival pure calculation. Yet even AlphaZero hasn’t solved chess; it simply achieves near-perfect performance.
4. Tablebases: Where Chess Is Solved
While full chess remains unsolved, some portions of it have been solved through endgame tablebases. These databases store the perfect move for every legal position with a small number of pieces.
Example Tablebases:
- Nalimov Tablebases (6 pieces)
- Syzygy Tablebases (7 pieces)
These tablebases provide exact outcomes (win/loss/draw) for all positions with 7 or fewer pieces. For instance, they can determine that King + Queen vs King + Rook is always a forced win in a specific number of moves.
Importance:
- Used by engines to play flawlessly in simplified positions.
- Serve as “solved subsets” of chess.
However, even though 7-piece endgames are solved, we are still light-years away from solving the full 32-piece starting position.
5. What Would It Take to Solve Chess?
Solving chess would require computational power far beyond current human capabilities.
Estimated Requirements:
- Storage: Storing all legal positions could require more bytes than all global data storage combined.
- Computation: Even if a computer analyzed a trillion positions per second, it would take billions of years to complete.
- Energy and Cost: The energy required would surpass that of entire nations.
In short, even with exponential advances in computing, full solution remains out of reach.
6. Theoretical Insights: What Experts Believe
Claude Shannon (1950)
Shannon, who invented the concept of information theory, estimated that chess has about 10^43 legal positions. He argued that brute-force methods were infeasible, and intelligent search strategies were the only path forward.
Garry Kasparov
The former World Champion believes that even if chess were solved someday, it wouldn’t affect its human appeal. “The beauty of chess lies in our imperfection,” he once said.
Computer Scientists’ Consensus
Most experts believe chess is a draw with perfect play, similar to checkers. However, this has never been proven.
7. Is Chess Getting Closer to Being Solved?
The rise of AI and quantum computing has sparked new discussions about whether chess could eventually be solved.
Quantum Computing
Quantum processors, theoretically capable of parallel computation at massive scales, could reduce analysis time. But even quantum computers face practical limits when dealing with exponential growth.
Neural Networks
Engines like Leela Chess Zero have brought us closer to understanding optimal play through pattern recognition rather than brute-force search.
The Realistic View
While engines are now far beyond human ability, they still estimate rather than determine outcomes from the initial position. The gap between “superhuman play” and “solved” remains vast.
8. Could Humans Ever Benefit from a Solved Chess?
If chess were ever solved, it might lose some of its mystery—but not its educational or artistic value.
Implications of a Solved Chess:
- Competitive play might change, as perfect play would lead to predetermined outcomes.
- Opening theory would collapse into known optimal sequences.
- AI research would gain valuable data for solving other complex problems.
However, since most games would end in a draw with perfect play, human creativity would still matter in practical chess.
9. Historical Attempts to Solve Chess
Over the decades, several projects have aimed to reduce chess’s complexity or partially solve it.
- 1950s: Claude Shannon’s theoretical work established computational limits.
- 1997: IBM’s Deep Blue defeated Garry Kasparov but didn’t solve chess.
- 2007: Checkers was solved—a breakthrough that inspired chess researchers.
- 2010s: Tablebases expanded to 7 pieces, covering millions of endgames.
- 2020s: Neural engines like Stockfish NNUE and Leela approach near-perfect performance.
Despite these milestones, full solution remains out of reach.
10. Will Chess Ever Be Solved?
The short answer: probably not anytime soon. Even with quantum or AI advancements, the sheer complexity of chess is staggering.
But there are two possible future scenarios:
Scenario 1: Weak Solution (Draw Proven)
At some point, researchers may mathematically prove that perfect play leads to a draw, without needing to map every position.
Scenario 2: Full Tablebase Solution
In the far future, with unimaginable computing power, every possible position could be stored and analyzed. This would make chess completely solved—but such a world remains theoretical.
Expert Prediction:
Most experts believe we’ll never have a full solution within the next several centuries. Chess will likely remain “effectively unsolved,” even as engines approach perfection.
11. What This Means for Chess Players
For players on platforms like Lichess, Chess.com, or in over-the-board tournaments, the question of whether chess is solved has little practical effect.
Instead, modern engines enhance the game:
- Helping players study openings.
- Analyzing mistakes.
- Creating puzzles and instructive positions.
Chess remains a dynamic human pursuit—where creativity, emotion, and imperfect choices make the game endlessly fascinating.
12. Final Verdict: Is Chess a Solved Game?
No, chess is not a solved game—and it’s unlikely to be solved in the foreseeable future. While we’ve solved small parts of it (endgames), the full game’s complexity exceeds current technological capabilities.
However, modern AI has brought us closer than ever to understanding near-perfect play. Engines like Stockfish and AlphaZero simulate how a “solved” chess game might look—rich in balance, creativity, and precision.
The mystery of chess continues to captivate players, scientists, and philosophers alike. The fact that we don’t know the ultimate truth keeps the game alive, relevant, and beautiful.
Conclusion:
Chess remains an unsolved masterpiece—an infinite battlefield between logic and imagination. Despite the power of modern AI, no one truly knows whether perfect chess ends in a draw or a win. And perhaps that’s the beauty of it. As long as chess remains unsolved, it will continue to inspire generations to think, create, and explore.
Leave a Reply